- \n
- D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng LME n\u0103m 2026 t\u1eeb c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c tr\u1ea3i r\u1ed9ng t\u1eeb kho\u1ea3ng 10.000\u201311.000 USD\/t\u1ea5n c\u1ee7a Goldman Sachs (c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 th\u00e1ng 12\/2025) \u0111\u1ebfn kho\u1ea3ng 13.165 USD\/t\u1ea5n c\u1ee7a Macquarie (c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 th\u00e1ng 7\/2026), ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t trong c\u00e1ch di\u1ec5n gi\u1ea3i c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng cung c\u1ea7u.<\/li>\n
- \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2027\u20132030, ch\u01b0a c\u00f3 t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c n\u00e0o c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau gi\u00e1 theo t\u1eebng n\u0103m \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ki\u1ec3m ch\u1ee9ng. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 giai \u0111o\u1ea1n ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch theo k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n, v\u1edbi h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111i ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 tr\u1ea7m tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t cung c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac.<\/li>\n
- Trong b\u00e1o c\u00e1o c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 n\u0103m 2025, C\u01a1 quan N\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf (IEA) c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o r\u1eb1ng theo k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch hi\u1ec7n h\u00e0nh (STEPS), ngu\u1ed3n cung \u0111\u1ed3ng s\u01a1 c\u1ea5p c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c kho\u1ea3ng 30% nhu c\u1ea7u v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2035.<\/li>\n
- C\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p khai th\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng l\u1edbn nh\u01b0 Codelco, FCX, BHP v\u00e0 Rio Tinto \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 l\u1ed9 tr\u00ecnh t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb ri\u00eang bi\u1ec7t; gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u0103ng kh\u00f4ng t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu t\u0103ng theo.<\/li>\n
- C\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed3ng (c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu khai th\u00e1c, ETF, CFD) c\u00f3 c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac chi ph\u00ed v\u00e0 \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m r\u1ee7i ro kh\u00e1c nhau, do \u0111\u00f3 c\u1ea7n hi\u1ec3u r\u00f5 t\u1eebng c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi tham gia.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
T\u1ea1i sao \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u00fa \u00fd l\u00fac n\u00e0y \u2014 Kim lo\u1ea1i c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf s\u1ed1 v\u00e0 xanh<\/h2>\n
\u0110\u1ed3ng t\u1eeb l\u00e2u \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0 kim lo\u1ea1i n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p nh\u1edd kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng d\u1eabn \u0111i\u1ec7n v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i v\u00e0 t\u00ednh d\u1ec5 gia c\u00f4ng. Tuy nhi\u00ean, t\u1eeb gi\u1eefa th\u1eadp ni\u00ean 2020, vai tr\u00f2 c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u00e3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t ra ngo\u00e0i ph\u1ea1m vi v\u1eadt li\u1ec7u c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng, tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh nguy\u00ean li\u1ec7u c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i cho nhu c\u1ea7u chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng. Theo ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a CME Group c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 n\u0103m 2026, xe \u0111i\u1ec7n (EV) c\u1ea7n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ed3ng g\u1ea5p 3\u20134 l\u1ea7n so v\u1edbi xe \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u01a1 \u0111\u1ed1t trong, v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c chi\u1ebfm kho\u1ea3ng 60% t\u1ed5ng ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ed3ng tinh luy\u1ec7n to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n
Trung t\u00e2m d\u1eef li\u1ec7u AI v\u00e0 l\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111i\u1ec7n \u0111ang thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ed3ng nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o<\/h3>\n
M\u1edf r\u1ed9ng h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng AI \u0111\u00e3 n\u1ed5i l\u00ean nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t tr\u1ee5c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng m\u1edbi c\u1ee7a c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ed3ng. M\u1ed9t trung t\u00e2m d\u1eef li\u1ec7u hyperscale c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 t\u1edbi 50.000 t\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ed3ng, v\u00e0 JP Morgan \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c trung t\u00e2m d\u1eef li\u1ec7u ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 kho\u1ea3ng 475.000 t\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ed3ng trong n\u0103m 2026. Hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea1i h\u00f3a l\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111i\u1ec7n c\u0169ng l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c c\u1ea7u quan tr\u1ecdng. T\u1eadp \u0111o\u00e0n L\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111i\u1ec7n Qu\u1ed1c gia Trung Qu\u1ed1c (State Grid) \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 4 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 nh\u00e2n d\u00e2n t\u1ec7 cho k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 5 n\u0103m giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2026\u20132030, t\u0103ng kho\u1ea3ng 40% so v\u1edbi 5 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3. Theo ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a CME Group, \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng \u0111i\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn s\u1ebd d\u1eabn d\u1eaft h\u01a1n 60% m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ed3ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2030.<\/p>\n
Xe \u0111i\u1ec7n (EV) v\u00e0 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u00e1i t\u1ea1o t\u1ea1o n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng c\u1ea7u d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n<\/h3>\n
Trong b\u00e1o c\u00e1o Tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng Kho\u00e1ng s\u1ea3n Quan tr\u1ecdng To\u00e0n c\u1ea7u c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 n\u0103m 2025, IEA d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o theo k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch hi\u1ec7n h\u00e0nh, c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ed3ng s\u1ebd t\u0103ng kho\u1ea3ng 30%, t\u1eeb kho\u1ea3ng 27 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ea5n n\u0103m 2024 l\u00ean kho\u1ea3ng 34 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ea5n v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2040. IEA c\u0169ng d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o t\u1ef7 tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u1ea1ch trong t\u1ed5ng c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ed3ng s\u1ebd t\u0103ng t\u1eeb 24% n\u0103m 2021 l\u00ean kho\u1ea3ng 36% v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2040. Thi\u1ebft b\u1ecb \u0111i\u1ec7n m\u1eb7t tr\u1eddi, \u0111i\u1ec7n gi\u00f3, c\u00e1p l\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111i\u1ec7n v\u00e0 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng pin xe \u0111i\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ec1u l\u00e0 c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng nhi\u1ec1u \u0111\u1ed3ng, do \u0111\u00f3 nhu c\u1ea7u t\u1eeb chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n cho th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed3ng.<\/p>\n
D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng n\u0103m 2026 \u2014 S\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t quan \u0111i\u1ec3m gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c v\u00e0 nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n<\/h2>\n
S\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t quan \u0111i\u1ec3m gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c v\u1ec1 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng n\u0103m 2026 n\u1ed5i b\u1eadt h\u01a1n b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 n\u0103m n\u00e0o tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3. \u0110\u00e2y kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01a1n thu\u1ea7n l\u00e0 sai s\u1ed1 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o, m\u00e0 xu\u1ea5t ph\u00e1t t\u1eeb s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t v\u1ec1 ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p lu\u1eadn trong \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng cung c\u1ea7u. B\u1ea3ng d\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n 3 th\u00e1ng tr\u00ean LME n\u0103m 2026 t\u1eeb c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c l\u1edbn. T\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u t\u00ednh theo USD\/t\u1ea5n; do th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 v\u00e0 gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i kh\u00e1c nhau, c\u1ea7n th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng khi so s\u00e1nh tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp.<\/p>\n
![\"Bi\u1ec3u](\"https:\/\/m4markets.com\/media-vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2026\/11\/copper-coin-price-outlook-2026-2030-2026-vi.webp\")
<\/figure>\nPhe l\u1ea1c quan: Lu\u1eadn \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a JP Morgan, Citi v\u00e0 Macquarie<\/h3>\n
C\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c theo quan \u0111i\u1ec3m l\u1ea1c quan \u0111\u01b0a ra h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac ph\u00eda cung l\u00e0m lu\u1eadn \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i. Macquarie \u0111\u01b0a ra d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o trung b\u00ecnh n\u0103m 2026 cho \u0111\u1ed3ng LME \u1edf m\u1ee9c kho\u1ea3ng 13.165 USD\/t\u1ea5n t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 7\/2026, trong khi Bernstein d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o kho\u1ea3ng 12.419 USD\/t\u1ea5n. BMI (Fitch Solutions) \u0111\u00e3 n\u00e2ng d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o n\u0103m 2026 l\u00ean kho\u1ea3ng 12.700 USD\/t\u1ea5n v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 7\/2026, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi \u0111\u01b0a ra k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n r\u1eb1ng gi\u00e1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t 17.000 USD\/t\u1ea5n v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2035 n\u1ebfu t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t cung c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac tr\u1edf n\u00ean nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n. C\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 m\u00e0 c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn ch\u1ec9 ra bao g\u1ed3m: th\u1eddi gian ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n m\u1ecf d\u00e0i (th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng 12\u201318 n\u0103m t\u1eeb ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t), suy gi\u1ea3m h\u00e0m l\u01b0\u1ee3ng qu\u1eb7ng (ore grade decline), v\u00e0 c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 c\u1ed1 gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n cung th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf nh\u01b0 v\u1ee5 tr\u00e0n b\u00f9n t\u1ea1i m\u1ecf Grasberg th\u00e1ng 9\/2025 v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 c\u1ed1 s\u1eadp \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ea7m t\u1ea1i m\u1ecf El Teniente c\u1ee7a Codelco.<\/p>\n
Quan \u0111i\u1ec3m th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng: Goldman Sachs v\u00e0 Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi<\/h3>\n
Goldman Sachs trong c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 th\u00e1ng 12\/2025 \u0111\u01b0a ra d\u1ea3i d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng LME n\u0103m 2026 \u1edf m\u1ee9c kho\u1ea3ng 10.000\u201311.000 USD\/t\u1ea5n, duy tr\u00ec l\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng. T\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c n\u00e0y ch\u1ec9 ra kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng d\u01b0 th\u1eeba \u0111\u1ed3ng tinh luy\u1ec7n ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n do Trung Qu\u1ed1c m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng c\u00f4ng su\u1ea5t luy\u1ec7n kim m\u1edbi, c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ed3ng x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng do th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n Trung Qu\u1ed1c tr\u1ea7m l\u1eafng, l\u00e0 c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 r\u1ee7i ro gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 ch\u00ednh. Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi c\u0169ng \u0111\u01b0a ra d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng \u1edf m\u1ee9c kho\u1ea3ng 9.800 USD\/t\u1ea5n. D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng cung c\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a Nh\u00f3m Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u \u0110\u1ed3ng Qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf (ICSG) dao \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1eeb th\u1eb7ng d\u01b0 kho\u1ea3ng 96.000 t\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t kho\u1ea3ng 150.000 t\u1ea5n cho n\u0103m 2026 t\u00f9y theo ngu\u1ed3n v\u00e0 th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1, khi\u1ebfn kh\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn b\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t con s\u1ed1 duy nh\u1ea5t. V\u00ec v\u1eady, kh\u00f4ng n\u00ean l\u1ea5y b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 con s\u1ed1 c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 n\u00e0o l\u00e0m ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i, do s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u c\u1ee7a c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i theo th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1.<\/p>\n
Di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf n\u0103m 2026 v\u00e0 m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i<\/h3>\n
T\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 3\/2026, t\u1ed3n kho \u0111\u1ed3ng h\u1eefu h\u00ecnh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u01b0\u1ee3t 1,3 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ea5n (S&P Global MI, th\u00e1ng 4\/2026), \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng l\u00e0m c\u01a1 s\u1edf cho lu\u1eadn \u0111i\u1ec3m d\u01b0 th\u1eeba cung ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n. Tuy nhi\u00ean, v\u00e0o gi\u1eefa n\u0103m 2026, \u0111\u1ed3ng k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n 3 th\u00e1ng tr\u00ean LME giao d\u1ecbch quanh m\u1ee9c 13.090\u201313.335 USD\/t\u1ea5n, g\u1ea7n h\u01a1n v\u1edbi d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c l\u1ea1c quan. Kh\u1ea3o s\u00e1t c\u1ee7a Reuters (t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 8\/2026) ghi nh\u1eadn m\u1ee9c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o trung b\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u1edf kho\u1ea3ng 11.975 USD\/t\u1ea5n, n\u1eb1m gi\u1eefa hai lu\u1ed3ng quan \u0111i\u1ec3m l\u1ea1c quan v\u00e0 th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng. \u0110i\u1ec3m quan tr\u1ecdng c\u1ea7n l\u01b0u \u00fd l\u00e0 gi\u00e1 LME (USD\/t\u1ea5n) v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai \u0111\u1ed3ng COMEX (USD\/pound) c\u00f3 \u0111\u01a1n v\u1ecb kh\u00e1c nhau v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 so s\u00e1nh tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp. Do 1 t\u1ea5n t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng kho\u1ea3ng 2.204,62 pound, vi\u1ec7c so s\u00e1nh song song hai con s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng quy \u0111\u1ed5i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn hi\u1ec3u nh\u1ea7m.<\/p>\n
Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed3ng 2027\u20132030 \u2014 T\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t cung c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng tr\u1ea7m tr\u1ecdng<\/h2>\n
\u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi giai \u0111o\u1ea1n sau n\u0103m 2027, ch\u01b0a c\u00f3 t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c n\u00e0o c\u00f4ng khai \u0111\u01b0a ra m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau gi\u00e1 theo t\u1eebng n\u0103m \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ki\u1ec3m ch\u1ee9ng. Do \u0111\u00f3, tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng giai \u0111o\u1ea1n n\u00e0y c\u1ea7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn nh\u01b0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac v\u00e0 gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n; c\u00e1c con s\u1ed1 trong b\u1ea3ng d\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 v\u00ed d\u1ee5 k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n mang t\u00ednh minh h\u1ecda, kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau c\u1ee7a t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c n\u00e0o.<\/p>\n
IEA c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t cung 30% v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2035<\/h3>\n
Trong b\u00e1o c\u00e1o Tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng Kho\u00e1ng s\u1ea3n Quan tr\u1ecdng To\u00e0n c\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2025, IEA c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o r\u1eb1ng theo k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch hi\u1ec7n h\u00e0nh (STEPS), ngu\u1ed3n cung \u0111\u1ed3ng s\u01a1 c\u1ea5p c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c kho\u1ea3ng 30% nhu c\u1ea7u v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2035. Lu\u1eadn \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o n\u00e0y l\u00e0 th\u1eddi gian ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n m\u1ecf. Ngay c\u1ea3 khi m\u1ed9t m\u1ecf \u0111\u1ed3ng m\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n h\u00f4m nay, th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u1ea3i m\u1ea5t 12\u201318 n\u0103m m\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea1t s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i, do \u0111\u00f3 c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n ngay b\u00e2y gi\u1edd \u0111\u1ec3 t\u0103ng ngu\u1ed3n cung v\u00e0o th\u1eadp ni\u00ean 2030. Vi\u1ec7c m\u1ee9c ph\u00ed x\u1eed l\u00fd v\u00e0 tinh luy\u1ec7n (TC\/RC) chu\u1ea9n n\u0103m 2026 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn \u1edf m\u1ee9c 0 USD\/t\u1ea5n l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed cho th\u1ea5y t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t tinh qu\u1eb7ng (concentrate) \u0111ang tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh hi\u1ec7n th\u1ef1c. IEA c\u0169ng d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u1eadp trung ngu\u1ed3n cung \u0111\u1ed3ng v\u00e0o 3 qu\u1ed1c gia h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u s\u1ebd c\u00f2n t\u0103ng th\u00eam \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2035, \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec3m y\u1ebfu c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac quan tr\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb.<\/p>\n
![\"\u0110\u1ed3](\"https:\/\/m4markets.com\/media-vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2026\/11\/copper-coin-price-outlook-2026-2030-iea-2035-30-vi.webp\")
<\/figure>\nK\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n theo t\u1eebng n\u0103m (l\u1ea1c quan \u00b7 c\u01a1 s\u1edf \u00b7 bi quan) \u2014 N\u00eau r\u00f5 c\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh<\/h3>\n
B\u1ea3ng d\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 ma tr\u1eadn k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n mang t\u00ednh gi\u00e1o d\u1ee5c, gi\u00fap hi\u1ec3u r\u00f5 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed3ng giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2027\u20132030. C\u00e1c con s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c n\u00e0o, m\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 v\u00ed d\u1ee5 minh h\u1ecda v\u1ec1 h\u01b0\u1edbng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn n\u1ebfu c\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a t\u1eebng k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec7n th\u1ef1c h\u00f3a.<\/p>\n
C\u00e1c k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng lo\u1ea1i tr\u1eeb l\u1eabn nhau, v\u00e0 tr\u00ean th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ecbu t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a nhi\u1ec1u y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0111an xen ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p. Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2027\u20132030 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 t\u00f9y thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o s\u1ef1 chuy\u1ec3n d\u1ecbch ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng trong nhu c\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c, th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n m\u1ecf m\u1edbi \u0111i v\u00e0o ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng, v\u00e0 t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n
Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p khai th\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng l\u1edbn \u2014 N\u0103ng l\u1ef1c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u00e0 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng<\/h2>\n
Song song v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c n\u1eafm b\u1eaft tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng, vi\u1ec7c t\u00ecm hi\u1ec3u h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eabn s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u00e0 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p khai th\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng l\u1edbn s\u1ebd cung c\u1ea5p b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh quan tr\u1ecdng cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 quan t\u00e2m \u0111\u1ebfn l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c n\u00e0y. B\u1ea3ng d\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p th\u00f4ng tin c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p ti\u00eau bi\u1ec3u.<\/p>\n
Codelco \u2014 Th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c v\u00e0 b\u00e0i to\u00e1n c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi<\/h3>\n
Codelco, doanh nghi\u1ec7p nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc Chile, l\u00e0 nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed3ng l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi t\u00ednh theo t\u1eebng c\u00f4ng ty \u0111\u01a1n l\u1ebb. Tuy nhi\u00ean, s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111ang c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng suy gi\u1ea3m mang t\u00ednh c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u do h\u00e0m l\u01b0\u1ee3ng qu\u1eb7ng t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c m\u1ecf ch\u1ee7 l\u1ef1c ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng th\u1ea5p v\u00e0 h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng xu\u1ed1ng c\u1ea5p. S\u1ef1 c\u1ed1 s\u1eadp \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ea7m t\u1ea1i m\u1ecf El Teniente v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 9 n\u0103m 2025 \u0111\u00e3 g\u00e2y ra gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n ngu\u1ed3n cung ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng n\u0103m 2026. Codelco \u0111ang tri\u1ec3n khai c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ea3i t\u1ea1o c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u quy m\u00f4 l\u1edbn, song c\u1ea7n th\u00eam nhi\u1ec1u th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u1ec3 k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 tr\u1edf n\u00ean r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng. R\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb t\u1ea1i Chile \u2014 bao g\u1ed3m thay \u0111\u1ed5i ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch thu\u1ebf khai th\u00e1c m\u1ecf v\u00e0 c\u00e1c xung \u0111\u1ed9t x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i \u2014 c\u0169ng l\u00e0 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 g\u00e2y b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh cho tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) \u2014 Grasberg v\u00e0 s\u00e1ng ki\u1ebfn leaching<\/h3>\n
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) l\u00e0 c\u00f4ng ty \u0111\u1ed3ng ni\u00eam y\u1ebft l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, v\u1edbi m\u1ecf Grasberg t\u1ea1i Indonesia l\u00e0 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i. S\u1ef1 c\u1ed1 b\u00f9n l\u1ea7y x\u1ea3y ra t\u1ea1i Grasberg v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 9 n\u0103m 2025 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh \u0111\u00e3 lo\u1ea1i kh\u1ecfi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kho\u1ea3ng 525.000\u2013591.000 t\u1ea5n ngu\u1ed3n cung cho \u0111\u1ebfn cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2026. FCX \u0111ang tri\u1ec3n khai s\u00e1ng ki\u1ebfn leaching (chi\u1ebft xu\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e1 th\u1ea3i) nh\u1eb1m m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau t\u0103ng th\u00eam kho\u1ea3ng 800 tri\u1ec7u pound (t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng kho\u1ea3ng 363.000 t\u1ea5n) s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u00e0ng n\u0103m v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2030. N\u1ebfu c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec7n th\u1ef1c h\u00f3a \u0111\u00fang k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch, \u0111\u00e2y s\u1ebd l\u00e0 \u0111\u00f3ng g\u00f3p quan tr\u1ecdng cho c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a FCX.<\/p>\n
BHP \u2014 Escondida v\u00e0 m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2030<\/h3>\n
T\u1eadp \u0111o\u00e0n BHP l\u00e0 c\u1ed5 \u0111\u00f4ng l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a m\u1ecf Escondida t\u1ea1i Chile \u2014 m\u1ecf \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u01a1n l\u1ebb l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi. H\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eabn s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed3ng c\u1ee7a BHP cho n\u0103m t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh 2026 l\u00e0 1,8\u20132,0 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ea5n, chi\u1ebfm t\u1ef7 tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 trong ngu\u1ed3n cung \u0111\u1ed3ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. BHP x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u1ed3ng l\u00e0 kim lo\u1ea1i c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i cho t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi t\u1eadp trung \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng Escondida v\u00e0 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n th\u00eam c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u1ea1i Nam M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 Australia.<\/p>\n
Rio Tinto \u2014 T\u0103ng s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Oyu Tolgoi v\u00e0 m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng Kennecott<\/h3>\n
Rio Tinto \u0111\u1eb7t m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau \u0111\u1ea1t s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ed3ng kho\u1ea3ng 1 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ea5n v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2030 th\u00f4ng qua vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ea1nh khai th\u00e1c h\u1ea7m l\u00f2 t\u1ea1i m\u1ecf Oyu Tolgoi \u1edf M\u00f4ng C\u1ed5. Oyu Tolgoi l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng m\u1ecf \u0111\u1ed3ng ch\u01b0a khai th\u00e1c l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, v\u00e0 s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111ang t\u0103ng d\u1ea7n theo t\u1eebng giai \u0111o\u1ea1n k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb khi b\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o giai \u0111o\u1ea1n khai th\u00e1c ng\u1ea7m. D\u1ef1 \u00e1n m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng m\u1ecf Kennecott t\u1ea1i bang Utah, Hoa K\u1ef3 c\u0169ng n\u1eb1m trong danh m\u1ee5c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ed3ng c\u1ee7a Rio Tinto.<\/p>\n
C\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p \u0111\u00e1ng ch\u00fa \u00fd kh\u00e1c: Southern Copper, Anglo American, Teck Resources<\/h3>\n
Southern Copper (SCCO) s\u1edf h\u1eefu tr\u1eef l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u00e3 x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t trong s\u1ed1 c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty \u0111\u1ed3ng ni\u00eam y\u1ebft, v\u1edbi c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n ch\u1ee7 l\u1ef1c t\u1ea1i Peru v\u00e0 Mexico. Anglo American \u0111ang t\u00e1i c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 theo h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ed3ng nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t m\u1ea3ng kinh doanh chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i, v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c UBS \u0111\u01b0a ra khuy\u1ebfn ngh\u1ecb mua. Teck Resources c\u1ee7a Canada \u0111ang c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 danh m\u1ee5c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u00f4ng qua d\u1ef1 \u00e1n Quebrada Blanca (QB2) t\u1ea1i Chile. Ivanhoe Mines, \u0111\u01a1n v\u1ecb v\u1eadn h\u00e0nh m\u1ecf Kamoa-Kakula t\u1ea1i C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a D\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 Congo (DRC), \u0111ang n\u1ed5i l\u00ean nhanh ch\u00f3ng nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t l\u1edbn m\u1edbi, tuy nhi\u00ean r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb t\u1ea1i DRC l\u00e0 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u1ea7n c\u00e2n nh\u1eafc k\u1ef9 l\u01b0\u1ee1ng.<\/p>\n
C\u00e1c r\u1ee7i ro ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed3ng \u2014 C\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng lu\u1eadn \u0111i\u1ec3m t\u0103ng gi\u00e1<\/h2>\n
Trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh t\u00e2m l\u00fd l\u1ea1c quan v\u1ec1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111ang chi\u1ebfm \u01b0u th\u1ebf, \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng, c\u1ea7n xem x\u00e9t \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi c\u00e1c r\u1ee7i ro gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu. Gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh b\u1edfi s\u1ef1 k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p c\u1ee7a nhi\u1ec1u y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u2014 cung, c\u1ea7u, m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u0129 m\u00f4 v\u00e0 v\u1ecb th\u1ebf \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 \u2014 do \u0111\u00f3, d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0111\u01a1n tuy\u1ebfn theo m\u1ed9t chi\u1ec1u duy nh\u1ea5t ti\u1ec1m \u1ea9n nhi\u1ec1u r\u1ee7i ro.<\/p>\n
K\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n nhu c\u1ea7u Trung Qu\u1ed1c suy y\u1ebfu<\/h3>\n
Trung Qu\u1ed1c chi\u1ebfm kho\u1ea3ng 60% l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ed3ng tinh luy\u1ec7n to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, do \u0111\u00f3 b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i n\u00e0o trong nhu c\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec1u t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ee9c th\u00ec \u0111\u1ebfn th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi. S\u1ef1 tr\u00ec tr\u1ec7 k\u00e9o d\u00e0i c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 k\u00ecm h\u00e3m nhu c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ed3ng trong x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng theo h\u01b0\u1edbng c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u. Li\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0o l\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111i\u1ec7n v\u00e0 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u00e1i t\u1ea1o c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ee7 b\u00f9 \u0111\u1eafp cho s\u1ef1 s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m nhu c\u1ea7u t\u1eeb l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n hay kh\u00f4ng v\u1eabn c\u00f2n l\u00e0 c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi ch\u01b0a c\u00f3 l\u1eddi gi\u1ea3i. Ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch thu\u1ebf quan c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 c\u0169ng l\u00e0 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 g\u00e2y bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng, l\u00e0m m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u00e1 COMEX\u2013LME (ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch arbitrage) trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2025\u20132026.<\/p>\n
Hai m\u1eb7t c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n ngu\u1ed3n cung \u2014 Y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n<\/h3>\n
C\u00e1c s\u1ef1 c\u1ed1 gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n ngu\u1ed3n cung nh\u01b0 s\u1ef1 c\u1ed1 b\u00f9n l\u1ea7y t\u1ea1i Grasberg hay s\u1eadp \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ea7m El Teniente l\u00e0 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u00e1 t\u0103ng trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n. Tuy nhi\u00ean, nh\u1eefng s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi l\u00e0m n\u1ed5i b\u1eadt r\u1ee7i ro t\u1eadp trung \u0111\u1ecba l\u00fd trong chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng \u0111\u1ed3ng. IEA d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u1eadp trung ngu\u1ed3n cung \u0111\u1ed3ng v\u00e0o ba qu\u1ed1c gia h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u s\u1ebd c\u00f2n t\u0103ng cao h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2035, \u0111\u1ed3ng ngh\u0129a v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb t\u1ea1i Chile, Peru, Indonesia v\u00e0 DRC c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1edbn h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh ngu\u1ed3n cung d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n. \u0110\u1ed3ng \u0111\u00f4 la M\u1ef9 m\u1ea1nh l\u00ean c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o \u00e1p l\u1ef1c gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed3ng \u2014 v\u1ed1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 b\u1eb1ng \u0111\u00f4 la \u2014 trong khi \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a Fed c\u0169ng l\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 v\u0129 m\u00f4 quan tr\u1ecdng c\u1ea7n theo d\u00f5i.<\/p>\n
T\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c thay th\u1ebf b\u1eb1ng nh\u00f4m v\u00e0 t\u00e1i ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed3ng<\/h3>\n
Nh\u00f4m c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng thay th\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed3ng trong m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 \u1ee9ng d\u1ee5ng d\u00e2y \u0111i\u1ec7n v\u00e0 c\u00e1p \u0111i\u1ec7n. IEA ph\u00e2n t\u00edch r\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c thay th\u1ebf b\u1eb1ng nh\u00f4m c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m nhu c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u1eeb 5\u201315%. T\u00e1i ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed3ng (ngu\u1ed3n cung \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1ee9 c\u1ea5p) c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 thay th\u1ebf m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n nhu c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ed3ng nguy\u00ean sinh t\u1eeb khai th\u00e1c m\u1ecf trong d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n; IEA \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh t\u00e1i ch\u1ebf c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m nhu c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ed3ng nguy\u00ean sinh kho\u1ea3ng 10% v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2040. Nh\u1eefng y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 n\u00e0y l\u00e0 c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n m\u1ee9c tr\u1ea7n c\u1ee7a tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng nhu c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ed3ng.<\/p>\n
C\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng \u2014 \u0110\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0 chi ph\u00ed c\u1ee7a t\u1eebng c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5<\/h2>\n
C\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ee9c ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu bao g\u1ed3m: \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp v\u00e0o c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu c\u00f4ng ty khai th\u00e1c m\u1ecf, ETF, h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch (CFD) v\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai. M\u1ed7i c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 c\u00f3 c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac chi ph\u00ed, m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y v\u00e0 c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf li\u00ean k\u1ebft v\u1edbi t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n c\u01a1 s\u1edf kh\u00e1c nhau, do \u0111\u00f3 vi\u1ec7c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0 kh\u1ea9u v\u1ecb r\u1ee7i ro c\u1ee7a b\u1ea3n th\u00e2n l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u quan tr\u1ecdng.<\/p>\n
So s\u00e1nh \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp v\u00e0o c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu khai th\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng v\u00e0 ETF (COPX, CPER)<\/h3>\n
\u0110\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp v\u00e0o c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu c\u00f4ng ty khai th\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng mang l\u1ea1i k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y khi gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u0103ng (l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a doanh nghi\u1ec7p khai th\u00e1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng), nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi c\u0169ng ph\u01a1i b\u00e0y nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c r\u1ee7i ro ngo\u00e0i gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng nh\u01b0 r\u1ee7i ro qu\u1ea3n tr\u1ecb doanh nghi\u1ec7p, gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1. COPX (Global X Copper Miners ETF) \u2014 ETF c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu khai th\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng \u2014 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ph\u00e2n t\u00e1n v\u00e0o kho\u1ea3ng 40 c\u00f4ng ty khai th\u00e1c m\u1ecf, gi\u00fap gi\u1ea3m thi\u1ec3u r\u1ee7i ro t\u1eebng doanh nghi\u1ec7p trong khi v\u1eabn ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c. Tuy nhi\u00ean, hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a COPX ch\u1ecbu \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1edbn h\u01a1n t\u1eeb k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 kinh doanh doanh nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 t\u00e2m l\u00fd th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng so v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng. CPER (ETF theo d\u00f5i h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai \u0111\u1ed3ng) b\u00e1m s\u00e1t gi\u00e1 h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai \u0111\u1ed3ng, nh\u01b0ng khi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai \u1edf tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i contango, chi ph\u00ed ph\u00e1t sinh trong qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ea3o v\u1ecb th\u1ebf (rollover) c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u00e0o m\u00f2n l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn khi n\u1eafm gi\u1eef d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n. Chi ph\u00ed rollover n\u00e0y l\u00e0 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 chi ph\u00ed quan tr\u1ecdng th\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u01b0a \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7 trong nhi\u1ec1u t\u00e0i li\u1ec7u t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh ti\u1ebfng Vi\u1ec7t.<\/p>\n
CFD \u0111\u1ed3ng (h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch) \u2014 \u0110\u00f2n b\u1ea9y, k\u00fd qu\u1ef9 v\u00e0 c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac chi ph\u00ed<\/h3>\n
H\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch (CFD) l\u00e0 c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ph\u00e1i sinh cho ph\u00e9p nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ee3i t\u1eeb bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp n\u1eafm gi\u1eef h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a th\u1ef1c hay h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai. CFD cho ph\u00e9p m\u1edf v\u1ecb th\u1ebf hai chi\u1ec1u \u2014 mua (long) khi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng gi\u00e1 t\u0103ng v\u00e0 b\u00e1n (short) khi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng gi\u00e1 gi\u1ea3m \u2014 \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y \u0111\u1ec3 ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb danh ngh\u0129a l\u1edbn h\u01a1n v\u1edbi s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n k\u00fd qu\u1ef9 nh\u1ecf h\u01a1n. K\u00fd qu\u1ef9 (margin) \u1edf \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 kho\u1ea3n ti\u1ec1n th\u1ebf ch\u1ea5p c\u1ea7n duy tr\u00ec \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1eef v\u1ecb th\u1ebf, kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i ph\u00ed hay chi ph\u00ed giao d\u1ecbch. Chi ph\u00ed trong giao d\u1ecbch CFD \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c chia th\u00e0nh ba lo\u1ea1i ch\u00ednh. Th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t, spread (ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u00e1 mua\u2013b\u00e1n) l\u00e0 chi ph\u00ed ph\u00e1t sinh ngay t\u1ea1i th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m giao d\u1ecbch. Th\u1ee9 hai, hoa h\u1ed3ng (commission) \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh ri\u00eang \u1edf m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 lo\u1ea1i t\u00e0i kho\u1ea3n v\u00e0 kh\u00e1c v\u1edbi spread. Th\u1ee9 ba, ph\u00ed swap (rollover qua \u0111\u00eam) l\u00e0 chi ph\u00ed t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y ph\u00e1t sinh khi gi\u1eef v\u1ecb th\u1ebf qua \u0111\u00eam \u2014 kho\u1ea3n ph\u00ed n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh m\u00e0 thay \u0111\u1ed5i t\u00f9y theo chi\u1ec1u v\u1ecb th\u1ebf, m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u kho\u1ea3n h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng. \u0110\u00f2n b\u1ea9y khu\u1ebfch \u0111\u1ea1i c\u1ea3 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn l\u1eabn thua l\u1ed7; n\u1ebfu th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn b\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i, nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 m\u1ea5t to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n k\u00fd qu\u1ef9 ban \u0111\u1ea7u. M4Markets l\u00e0 n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng cung c\u1ea5p CFD cho nhi\u1ec1u lo\u1ea1i h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a bao g\u1ed3m v\u00e0ng, b\u1ea1c, b\u1ea1ch kim, d\u1ea7u Brent v\u00e0 d\u1ea7u WTI. \u0110\u1ec3 bi\u1ebft th\u00f4ng tin c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c c\u00f3 cung c\u1ea5p CFD \u0111\u1ed3ng hay kh\u00f4ng v\u00e0 c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n giao d\u1ecbch hi\u1ec7n h\u00e0nh, vui l\u00f2ng ki\u1ec3m tra tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp t\u00e0i li\u1ec7u s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c.<\/p>\n
![\"S\u01a1](\"https:\/\/m4markets.com\/media-vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2026\/11\/copper-coin-price-outlook-2026-2030-cfd-vi.webp\")
<\/figure>\nC\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o r\u1ee7i ro: H\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch (CFD) l\u00e0 c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p v\u00e0 ti\u1ec1m \u1ea9n r\u1ee7i ro cao. \u0110\u00f2n b\u1ea9y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 khu\u1ebfch \u0111\u1ea1i c\u1ea3 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn l\u1eabn thua l\u1ed7, v\u00e0 t\u00f9y theo \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 m\u1ea5t to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 v\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ban \u0111\u1ea7u. Tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u giao d\u1ecbch, b\u1ea1n n\u00ean t\u00ecm hi\u1ec3u k\u1ef9 c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m v\u00e0 c\u00e1c chi ph\u00ed li\u00ean quan, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi th\u1ef1c h\u00e0nh tr\u00ean t\u00e0i kho\u1ea3n demo.<\/p>\n
C\u00e1c ti\u00eau ch\u00ed c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ea7n xem x\u00e9t khi l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0<\/h3>\n
C\u00e2u h\u1ecfi th\u01b0\u1eddng g\u1eb7p<\/h2>\n
Gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u0103ng th\u00ec c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu c\u00f4ng ty khai th\u00e1c m\u1ecf c\u00f3 t\u0103ng theo kh\u00f4ng?<\/h3>\n
Gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u0103ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p khai th\u00e1c m\u1ecf, t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u00edch c\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu. Tuy nhi\u00ean, ngo\u00e0i gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng, c\u00f2n nhi\u1ec1u y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 kh\u00e1c \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu nh\u01b0 chi ph\u00ed s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a t\u1eebng doanh nghi\u1ec7p, m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 n\u1ee3, quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a ban l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o, t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 h\u1ed1i \u0111o\u00e1i v\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb. Gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u0103ng kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ed3ng ngh\u0129a v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu khai th\u00e1c m\u1ecf s\u1ebd t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u0103ng theo.<\/p>\n
ETF \u0111\u1ed3ng v\u00e0 CFD \u0111\u1ed3ng kh\u00e1c nhau nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o?<\/h3>\n
ETF \u0111\u1ed3ng (COPX, CPER) l\u00e0 c\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c mua th\u00f4ng qua t\u00e0i kho\u1ea3n ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n, cho ph\u00e9p ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed3ng m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y. COPX theo d\u00f5i c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty khai th\u00e1c m\u1ecf, trong khi CPER theo d\u00f5i h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai \u0111\u1ed3ng. CFD \u0111\u1ed3ng l\u00e0 s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m ph\u00e1i sinh ch\u1ec9 thanh to\u00e1n theo ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u00e1 m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n n\u1eafm gi\u1eef t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n th\u1ef1c hay ETF. CFD cho ph\u00e9p s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y, gi\u00fap m\u1edf v\u1ecb th\u1ebf l\u1edbn v\u1edbi s\u1ed1 v\u1ed1n nh\u1ecf, nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi c\u0169ng khu\u1ebfch \u0111\u1ea1i m\u1ee9c thua l\u1ed7 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ee9ng.<\/p>\n
Gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee9c n\u00e0o v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2030?<\/h3>\n
Hi\u1ec7n ch\u01b0a c\u00f3 m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau gi\u00e1 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ki\u1ec3m ch\u1ee9ng t\u1eeb c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c uy t\u00edn cho n\u0103m 2030 trong c\u00e1c t\u00e0i li\u1ec7u c\u00f4ng khai. BMI (Fitch Solutions) \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0a ra k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 7 n\u0103m 2026, cho r\u1eb1ng n\u1ebfu t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t ngu\u1ed3n cung c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c tr\u1ea7m tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n, gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t 17.000 USD\/t\u1ea5n v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2035. Tuy nhi\u00ean, \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh, kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn. Gi\u00e1 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 t\u00f9y thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o nhi\u1ec1u y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 nh\u01b0 nhu c\u1ea7u t\u1eeb Trung Qu\u1ed1c, ti\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111\u01b0a c\u00e1c m\u1ecf m\u1edbi v\u00e0o ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng, t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4.<\/p>\n
T\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 LME v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 COMEX l\u1ea1i kh\u00e1c nhau?<\/h3>\n
Gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng tr\u00ean S\u00e0n giao d\u1ecbch Kim lo\u1ea1i London (LME) \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ni\u00eam y\u1ebft theo \u0111\u01a1n v\u1ecb USD\/t\u1ea5n, trong khi h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai \u0111\u1ed3ng tr\u00ean COMEX \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ni\u00eam y\u1ebft theo \u0111\u01a1n v\u1ecb USD\/pound. Do 1 t\u1ea5n t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng kho\u1ea3ng 2.204,62 pound, c\u1ea7n quy \u0111\u1ed5i \u0111\u01a1n v\u1ecb khi so s\u00e1nh hai m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 n\u00e0y. Ngo\u00e0i ra, LME s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng gi\u00e1 k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n 3 th\u00e1ng l\u00e0m chu\u1ea9n, c\u00f2n COMEX l\u00e0 gi\u00e1 h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng tr\u00ean s\u00e0n giao d\u1ecbch t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9. Ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u00e1 gi\u1eefa hai th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng (arbitrage) c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i t\u00f9y theo ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch thu\u1ebf quan, chi ph\u00ed logistics v\u00e0 cung c\u1ea7u th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n
Chi ph\u00ed swap khi giao d\u1ecbch CFD \u0111\u1ed3ng l\u00e0 bao nhi\u00eau?<\/h3>\n
Chi ph\u00ed swap (rollover) l\u00e0 kho\u1ea3n ph\u00ed t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y ph\u00e1t sinh khi gi\u1eef v\u1ecb th\u1ebf CFD qua \u0111\u00eam. Chi ph\u00ed n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh m\u00e0 thay \u0111\u1ed5i t\u00f9y theo chi\u1ec1u v\u1ecb th\u1ebf (mua\/b\u00e1n), l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u01a1 s\u1edf, ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 m\u00f4i gi\u1edbi v\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u kho\u1ea3n h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng. \u0110\u1ec3 bi\u1ebft m\u1ee9c ph\u00ed swap c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3, b\u1ea1n c\u1ea7n ki\u1ec3m tra b\u1ea3n th\u00f4ng s\u1ed1 k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 m\u00f4i gi\u1edbi tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi giao d\u1ecbch.<\/p>\n
C\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 cung c\u1ea7u c\u1ea7n theo d\u00f5i trong d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng<\/h2>\n
C\u00f3 ba bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ea7n theo d\u00f5i trong d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2026\u20132030 v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty khai th\u00e1c m\u1ecf. Th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t, t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 tri\u1ec3n khai \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o l\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111i\u1ec7n v\u00e0 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u00e1i t\u1ea1o c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c, c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y. Trung Qu\u1ed1c chi\u1ebfm kho\u1ea3ng 60% l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ed3ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, do \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i v\u1ec1 ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng nhu c\u1ea7u t\u1eeb Trung Qu\u1ed1c l\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh xu h\u01b0\u1edbng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. Th\u1ee9 hai, m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 ho\u00e0n th\u00e0nh k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c m\u1ecf l\u1edbn. S\u1ef1 c\u1ed1 ho\u1eb7c v\u01b0\u1ee3t m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c m\u1ecf tr\u1ecdng \u0111i\u1ec3m nh\u01b0 Escondida c\u1ee7a BHP, Oyu Tolgoi c\u1ee7a Rio Tinto hay Grasberg c\u1ee7a FCX \u0111\u1ec1u t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng cung c\u1ea7u. Th\u1ee9 ba, t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng suy gi\u1ea3m h\u00e0m l\u01b0\u1ee3ng qu\u1eb7ng v\u00e0 th\u1eddi gian ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n m\u1ecf m\u1edbi. Trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh h\u00e0m l\u01b0\u1ee3ng qu\u1eb7ng t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c m\u1ecf hi\u1ec7n h\u1eefu li\u00ean t\u1ee5c gi\u1ea3m, vi\u1ec7c m\u1ed9t m\u1ecf m\u1edbi c\u1ea7n t\u1eeb 12 \u0111\u1ebfn 18 n\u0103m \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i l\u00e0 r\u00e0ng bu\u1ed9c c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u l\u00e0m t\u0103ng kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t ngu\u1ed3n cung trong th\u1eadp ni\u00ean 2030. N\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n quan t\u00e2m \u0111\u1ebfn th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed3ng, vi\u1ec7c hi\u1ec3u r\u00f5 c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u v\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro n\u00e0y s\u1ebd l\u00e0 c\u01a1 s\u1edf \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 th\u1ef1c ch\u1ea5t h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c ch\u1ec9 theo d\u00f5i c\u00e1c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau gi\u00e1 c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3. Khi xem x\u00e9t c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, h\u00e3y tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp ki\u1ec3m tra b\u1ea3n th\u00f4ng s\u1ed1 h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng v\u00e0 c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac chi ph\u00ed c\u1ee7a t\u1eebng s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y, n\u00ean th\u1ef1c h\u00e0nh tr\u00ean t\u00e0i kho\u1ea3n demo \u0111\u1ec3 hi\u1ec3u r\u00f5 tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi tham gia giao d\u1ecbch th\u1ef1c.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u0110\u1ed3ng \u0111ang l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng kim lo\u1ea1i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u00fa \u00fd nh\u1ea5t tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2026, khi ba xu h\u01b0\u1edbng c\u1ea7u mang t\u00ednh c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi: xe \u0111i\u1ec7n (EV), trung t\u00e2m d\u1eef li\u1ec7u AI v\u00e0 hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea1i h\u00f3a l\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111i\u1ec7n. Gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n 3 th\u00e1ng tr\u00ean S\u00e0n giao d\u1ecbch kim lo\u1ea1i London (LME) \u0111ang giao d\u1ecbch quanh m\u1ee9c kho\u1ea3ng 13.000 USD\/t\u1ea5n v\u00e0o gi\u1eefa n\u0103m 2026, trong khi d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u1eeb c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c l\u1edbn dao \u0111\u1ed9ng kh\u00e1 r\u1ed9ng gi\u1eefa hai lu\u1ed3ng quan \u0111i\u1ec3m l\u1ea1c quan v\u00e0 th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng. B\u00e0i vi\u1ebft n\u00e0y ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u00f3 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng: so s\u00e1nh d\u1ef1 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":41,"featured_media":554,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-558","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commodity-trading"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"yoast_head":"\n
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