- \n
- \u0110\u1ed3ng LME (t\u00ednh theo USD\/MT) v\u00e0 h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai COMEX HG (t\u00ednh theo USD\/lb) c\u00f3 \u0111\u01a1n v\u1ecb v\u00e0 c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00e1c nhau, v\u00ec v\u1eady khi so s\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp c\u1ea7n ki\u1ec3m tra k\u1ef9 \u0111\u01a1n v\u1ecb (1 USD\/lb \u2248 2.204,6 USD\/MT).<\/li>\n
- Goldman Sachs d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u1ea1t 13.735 USD\/MT v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2026 v\u00e0 trung b\u00ecnh 13.800 USD\/MT trong n\u0103m 2027, trong khi Macquarie \u0111\u01b0a ra kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng d\u01b0 cung 262.000 t\u1ea5n trong n\u0103m 2026 \u2014 cho th\u1ea5y s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c.<\/li>\n
- Nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t cung mang t\u00ednh c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u l\u00e0 chu k\u1ef3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n m\u1ecf trung b\u00ecnh t\u1eeb 15 \u0111\u1ebfn 17 n\u0103m k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb khi ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ebfn khi \u0111\u01b0a v\u00e0o s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t, khi\u1ebfn ngu\u1ed3n cung kh\u00f3 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng k\u1ecbp th\u1eddi v\u1edbi t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u gi\u00e1 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i.<\/li>\n
- Giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2028\u20132030 c\u00f3 r\u1ea5t \u00edt d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o c\u00f4ng khai t\u1eeb c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c l\u1edbn, v\u00ec v\u1eady c\u00e1c con s\u1ed1 ri\u00eang l\u1ebb nh\u01b0 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o 6 USD\/lb (kho\u1ea3ng 13.228 USD\/MT) v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2030 c\u1ee7a Red Cloud Securities ch\u1ec9 n\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u1edf m\u1ee9c tham kh\u1ea3o.<\/li>\n
- CFD \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111i k\u00e8m v\u1edbi r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y v\u00e0 chi ph\u00ed gi\u1eef l\u1ec7nh qua \u0111\u00eam (overnight financing), trong khi ETF trong n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf kh\u00e1c nhau t\u00f9y thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o chi ph\u00ed rollover v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c c\u00f3 ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba r\u1ee7i ro t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 hay kh\u00f4ng.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed3ng n\u0103m 2026 \u0111ang \u1edf \u0111\u00e2u?<\/h2>\n
Ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1 m\u1ee9c cao l\u1ecbch s\u1eed v\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1<\/h3>\n
Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed3ng n\u0103m 2026 \u0111ang h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh v\u00f9ng gi\u00e1 \u1edf m\u1ee9c cao l\u1ecbch s\u1eed trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1ea1nh. Theo gi\u00e1 k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n 3 th\u00e1ng tr\u00ean LME, trong n\u1eeda \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2026 \u0111\u00e3 ghi nh\u1eadn nh\u1eefng giai \u0111o\u1ea1n gi\u00e1 v\u01b0\u1ee3t 11.000 USD\/MT, v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c \u0111\u01b0a ra kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng trong n\u0103m nay. Tuy nhi\u00ean, m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 dao \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1ea1nh trong th\u1eddi gian ng\u1eafn do nhi\u1ec1u y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 ph\u1ee9c h\u1ee3p nh\u01b0 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch thu\u1ebf quan c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9, b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n v\u1ec1 nhu c\u1ea7u t\u1eeb Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3ng USD m\u1ea1nh l\u00ean. V\u00ec \u0111\u1ed3ng truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem l\u00e0 th\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111o kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, kim lo\u1ea1i n\u00e0y c\u00f3 \u0111\u1eb7c t\u00ednh ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng nh\u1ea1y b\u00e9n v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i trong c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4.<\/p>\n
LME vs. COMEX: T\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 hai s\u00e0n l\u1ea1i kh\u00e1c nhau?<\/h3>\n
L\u00fd do t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng l\u1ea1i cho ra c\u00e1c con s\u1ed1 kh\u00e1c nhau l\u00e0 v\u00ec hai s\u00e0n giao d\u1ecbch ch\u00ednh c\u00f3 \u0111\u01a1n v\u1ecb v\u00e0 c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac kh\u00e1c nhau. S\u00e0n Giao d\u1ecbch Kim lo\u1ea1i London (LME) l\u00e0 gi\u00e1 chu\u1ea9n to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, ni\u00eam y\u1ebft h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n 3 th\u00e1ng theo \u0111\u01a1n v\u1ecb USD\/t\u1ea5n (MT) v\u1edbi quy m\u00f4 h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng 25 MT. H\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai COMEX HG (thu\u1ed9c CME Group) l\u00e0 gi\u00e1 chu\u1ea9n c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9, s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u01a1n v\u1ecb USD\/pound (lb) v\u1edbi quy m\u00f4 h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng 25.000 pound. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, n\u1ebfu gi\u00e1 COMEX l\u00e0 5,00 USD\/lb th\u00ec quy \u0111\u1ed5i sang LME t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng kho\u1ea3ng 11.023 USD\/MT. T\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2026, k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 thu\u1ebf quan \u0111\u1ed3ng c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 gia t\u0103ng \u0111\u00e3 khi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 COMEX h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac contango b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng so v\u1edbi LME (gi\u00e1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai > gi\u00e1 giao ngay). Hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u00e0y xu\u1ea5t ph\u00e1t t\u1eeb vi\u1ec7c ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u1ea1i M\u1ef9 t\u00edch tr\u1eef h\u00e0ng t\u1ed3n kho tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi thu\u1ebf quan \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng, do \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ngo\u00e0i M\u1ef9, gi\u00e1 LME ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u cung c\u1ea7u to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp h\u01a1n. Ngo\u00e0i ra, c\u1ea7n l\u01b0u \u00fd r\u1eb1ng gi\u00e1 "giao ngay (cash)" v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 "k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n 3 th\u00e1ng" tr\u00ean LME l\u00e0 hai m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 kh\u00e1c nhau v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng n\u00ean nh\u1ea7m l\u1eabn.<\/p>\n
![\"Infographic](\"https:\/\/m4markets.com\/media-vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2026\/11\/copper-commodity-market-outlook-2026-2030-lme-vs-comex-vi.webp\")
<\/figure>\nBa \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y nhu c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ed3ng<\/h2>\n
Trung t\u00e2m d\u1eef li\u1ec7u AI v\u00e0 h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng \u0111i\u1ec7n l\u1ef1c<\/h3>\n
Nhu c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u1eeb c\u00e1c trung t\u00e2m d\u1eef li\u1ec7u AI \u0111ang n\u1ed5i l\u00ean nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng m\u1edbi c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed3ng sau n\u0103m 2026. Theo ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a Trafigura, n\u1ebfu 15 GW trung t\u00e2m d\u1eef li\u1ec7u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u00e1t sinh kho\u1ea3ng 750.000 MT nhu c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ed3ng m\u1edbi m\u1ed7i n\u0103m. C\u00e1c trung t\u00e2m d\u1eef li\u1ec7u s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u1eadp trung \u1edf nhi\u1ec1u h\u1ea1ng m\u1ee5c nh\u01b0 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng l\u00e0m m\u00e1t m\u00e1y ch\u1ee7, d\u00e2y d\u1eabn \u0111i\u1ec7n v\u00e0 m\u00e1y bi\u1ebfn \u00e1p. Khi \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng AI t\u0103ng t\u1ed1c tr\u00ean to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, nhu c\u1ea7u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u0103ng li\u00ean t\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2030, tuy nhi\u00ean quy m\u00f4 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf s\u1ebd ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng v\u00e0 ti\u1ebfn b\u1ed9 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng.<\/p>\n
Xe \u0111i\u1ec7n (EV) v\u00e0 h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng s\u1ea1c<\/h3>\n
Xe \u0111i\u1ec7n s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ed3ng nhi\u1ec1u g\u1ea5p 3\u20134 l\u1ea7n so v\u1edbi xe \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u01a1 \u0111\u1ed1t trong. M\u1ed7i chi\u1ebfc xe c\u1ea7n kho\u1ea3ng 50\u201380 kg \u0111\u1ed3ng, ch\u01b0a k\u1ec3 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ed3ng b\u1ed5 sung cho h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng s\u1ea1c v\u00e0 k\u1ebft n\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111i\u1ec7n. Nhu c\u1ea7u \u0111i\u1ec7n kh\u00ed h\u00f3a (electrification demand) l\u00e0 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 k\u00e9o ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u0103ng theo c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u khi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ph\u1ed5 c\u1eadp EV ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng cao. Trafigura d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2030, ri\u00eang EV v\u00e0 h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng li\u00ean quan s\u1ebd t\u1ea1o ra h\u01a1n 1 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ea5n nhu c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ed3ng b\u1ed5 sung. Tuy nhi\u00ean, con s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y ch\u1ee9a \u0111\u1ef1ng s\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 t\u00f9y thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 ph\u1ed5 c\u1eadp EV, thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 pin v\u00e0 m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a t\u1eebng qu\u1ed1c gia.<\/p>\n
N\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u00e1i t\u1ea1o v\u00e0 m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng l\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111i\u1ec7n th\u00f4ng minh<\/h3>\n
T\u1ea5m pin m\u1eb7t tr\u1eddi, tuabin gi\u00f3 v\u00e0 n\u00e2ng c\u1ea5p l\u01b0\u1edbi truy\u1ec1n t\u1ea3i \u0111i\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ec1u ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ed3ng v\u1edbi kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u1edbn. Nhu c\u1ea7u x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng l\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111i\u1ec7n th\u00f4ng minh v\u00e0 thay th\u1ebf h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng \u0111i\u1ec7n l\u1ed7i th\u1eddi \u0111ang t\u0103ng \u1edf c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n l\u1eabn c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf m\u1edbi n\u1ed5i, trong khi qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p h\u00f3a nhanh ch\u00f3ng t\u1ea1i \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 v\u00e0 \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 c\u0169ng g\u00f3p ph\u1ea7n th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng nhu c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ed3ng. Wood Mackenzie d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o nhu c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ed3ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea1t 43 Mt m\u1ed7i n\u0103m v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2035, c\u00f2n S&P Global ph\u00e2n t\u00edch r\u1eb1ng ch\u1ec9 ri\u00eang nhu c\u1ea7u li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn chuy\u1ec3n d\u1ecbch n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2025\u20132040 \u0111\u00e3 c\u1ea7n th\u00eam 7,1 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ed3ng. Nh\u1eefng d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o nhu c\u1ea7u d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n n\u00e0y l\u00e0 lu\u1eadn c\u1ee9 c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i cho l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn v\u1ec1 thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t cung mang t\u00ednh c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u.<\/p>\n
T\u1ea1i sao ngu\u1ed3n cung kh\u00f4ng theo k\u1ecbp nhu c\u1ea7u?<\/h2>\n
Gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u trong ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n m\u1ecf (15\u201317 n\u0103m t\u1eeb ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t)<\/h3>\n
L\u00fd do c\u0103n b\u1ea3n nh\u1ea5t khi\u1ebfn ngu\u1ed3n cung \u0111\u1ed3ng kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng k\u1ecbp th\u1eddi v\u1edbi \u0111\u00e0 t\u0103ng nhu c\u1ea7u ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 th\u1eddi gian ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n m\u1ecf. T\u1eeb khi ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n m\u1ed9t m\u1ecf \u0111\u1ed3ng m\u1edbi \u0111\u1ebfn khi \u0111\u01b0a v\u00e0o s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, trung b\u00ecnh m\u1ea5t t\u1eeb 15 \u0111\u1ebfn 17 n\u0103m. Kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian n\u00e0y bao g\u1ed3m nhi\u1ec1u giai \u0111o\u1ea1n ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p nh\u01b0 th\u0103m d\u00f2 \u0111\u1ecba ch\u1ea5t, \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng, xin c\u1ea5p ph\u00e9p khai th\u00e1c, x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng v\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t th\u1eed nghi\u1ec7m. Vi\u1ec7c h\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 d\u1ef1 \u00e1n m\u1ecf l\u1edbn n\u00e0o \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00ea duy\u1ec7t trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2020\u20132024 \u0111\u1ed3ng ngh\u0129a v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c kh\u00f3 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng ngu\u1ed3n cung m\u1edbi \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ea7u th\u1eadp ni\u00ean 2030. Ngo\u00e0i ra, h\u00e0m l\u01b0\u1ee3ng qu\u1eb7ng (ore grade) t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c m\u1ecf hi\u1ec7n h\u1eefu li\u00ean t\u1ee5c suy gi\u1ea3m, t\u1ea1o \u00e1p l\u1ef1c chi ph\u00ed khi ph\u1ea3i x\u1eed l\u00fd nhi\u1ec1u qu\u1eb7ng h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ec3 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ed3ng tinh luy\u1ec7n (refined copper).<\/p>\n
Gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c m\u1ecf l\u1edbn: Grasberg v\u00e0 Kamoa-Kakula<\/h3>\n
Gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t m\u1ecf l\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 quan tr\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 ph\u00eda cung trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n. M\u1ecf Grasberg t\u1ea1i Indonesia v\u00e0 m\u1ecf Kamoa-Kakula t\u1ea1i C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a D\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 Congo \u0111\u1ec1u l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng m\u1ecf \u0111\u1ed3ng l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, nh\u01b0ng c\u1ea3 hai \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o s\u1ebd ch\u1eadm tr\u1ec5 trong vi\u1ec7c ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2028. Codelco c\u1ee7a Chile \u2014 nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed3ng l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u2014 c\u0169ng \u0111ang \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng tr\u00ec tr\u1ec7. Nh\u1eefng gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t n\u00e0y l\u00e0m tr\u1ea7m tr\u1ecdng th\u00eam t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t cung ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n v\u00e0 th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1eabn ch\u1ee9ng nh\u01b0 lu\u1eadn c\u1ee9 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 \u00e1p l\u1ef1c t\u0103ng gi\u00e1.<\/p>\n
R\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb t\u1ea1i Chile, Congo v\u00e0 Indonesia<\/h3>\n
Ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ed3ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u t\u1eadp trung t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c khu v\u1ef1c c\u00f3 r\u1ee7i ro ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb v\u00e0 x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i cao nh\u01b0 Chile, C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a D\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 Congo v\u00e0 Indonesia. Nguy c\u01a1 qu\u1ed1c h\u1eefu h\u00f3a m\u1ecf, tranh ch\u1ea5p lao \u0111\u1ed9ng, si\u1ebft ch\u1eb7t quy \u0111\u1ecbnh m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u \u0111\u1ec1u l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u00e2y ra gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n ngu\u1ed3n cung. \u0110\u1ed3ng t\u00e1i ch\u1ebf (\u0111\u1ed3ng ph\u1ebf li\u1ec7u) c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u00f9 \u0111\u1eafp m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t, nh\u01b0ng ngu\u1ed3n cung ph\u1ebf li\u1ec7u c\u00f3 gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n v\u1eadt l\u00fd v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t cung mang t\u00ednh c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u.<\/p>\n
M\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng c\u00e1ch b\u00f9 \u0111\u1eafp cho vi\u1ec7c ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n m\u1ecf m\u1edbi v\u00e0 gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n ngu\u1ed3n cung t\u1eeb c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t l\u1edbn l\u00e0 thu h\u1ed3i v\u00e0 t\u00e1i ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed3ng hi\u1ec7n c\u00f3. \u0110\u1ec3 hi\u1ec3u c\u00e1ch h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh gi\u00e1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u00e1i ch\u1ebf c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t theo t\u1eebng c\u1ea5p \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tham kh\u1ea3o th\u00eam v\u1ec1 tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng ph\u1ebf li\u1ec7u v\u00e0 c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u cung c\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e1i ch\u1ebf.<\/p>\n
So s\u00e1nh d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2026\u20132030<\/h2>\n
Tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng n\u0103m 2026: T\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n t\u1eeb c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c<\/h3>\n
B\u1ea3ng d\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 b\u1edfi c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c l\u1edbn. Do th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1, giai \u0111o\u1ea1n d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o v\u00e0 \u0111\u01a1n v\u1ecb c\u1ee7a t\u1eebng t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00e1c nhau, c\u1ea7n th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng khi so s\u00e1nh tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp. C\u00e1c con s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y l\u00e0 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp c\u1ee7a t\u1eebng t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng (market consensus).<\/p>\n
\u203b Tham kh\u1ea3o quy \u0111\u1ed5i \u0111\u01a1n v\u1ecb: $5,00\/lb \u2248 $11.023\/MT, $6,00\/lb \u2248 $13.228\/MT (\u00e1p d\u1ee5ng t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 1 USD\/lb = 2.204,6 USD\/MT)<\/p>\n
2027\u20132028: Giai \u0111o\u1ea1n th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t ngu\u1ed3n cung gia t\u0103ng<\/h3>\n
Goldman Sachs d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n tr\u00ean LME n\u0103m 2027 \u0111\u1ea1t $13.800\/MT, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 giai \u0111o\u1ea1n th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t ngu\u1ed3n cung (supply deficit) ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng tr\u1ea7m tr\u1ecdng. N\u1ebfu s\u1ef1 ch\u1eadm tr\u1ec5 trong vi\u1ec7c kh\u00f4i ph\u1ee5c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t t\u1ea1i Grasberg v\u00e0 Kamoa-Kakula k\u00e9o d\u00e0i \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2028, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u trong \u0111\u00f3 nhu c\u1ea7u t\u0103ng m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 th\u00eam ngu\u1ed3n cung m\u1edbi. Red Cloud Securities d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng n\u0103m 2028 \u1edf m\u1ee9c $5,25\/lb (kho\u1ea3ng $11.574\/MT). Tuy nhi\u00ean, do c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o c\u00f4ng khai t\u1eeb c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c cho giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2027\u20132028 c\u00f2n h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi n\u0103m 2026, n\u00ean c\u00e1c con s\u1ed1 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o cho giai \u0111o\u1ea1n n\u00e0y ch\u1ec9 n\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem l\u00e0 ngu\u1ed3n tham kh\u1ea3o.<\/p>\n
2029\u20132030: Tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n<\/h3>\n
Giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2029\u20132030 r\u1ea5t hi\u1ebfm c\u00f3 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o gi\u00e1 theo t\u1eebng n\u0103m \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 c\u00f4ng khai t\u1eeb c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c. Red Cloud d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng n\u0103m 2030 \u1edf m\u1ee9c $6\/lb (kho\u1ea3ng $13.228\/MT), \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp c\u1ee7a t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c n\u00e0y. S&P Global c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o r\u1eb1ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t ngu\u1ed3n cung t\u00edch l\u0169y l\u00ean \u0111\u1ebfn 10 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ea5n v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2040, v\u00e0 trong tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p \u0111\u00f3, gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng sau n\u0103m 2030 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ecbu \u00e1p l\u1ef1c t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh. Tuy nhi\u00ean, c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 v\u1eady c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 t\u00f9y thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o nhi\u1ec1u bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 nh\u01b0 t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, thay th\u1ebf c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7, m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng ngu\u1ed3n cung \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u00e1i ch\u1ebf v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00e1c m\u1ecf m\u1edbi, do \u0111\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng n\u00ean xem \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 c\u00e1c con s\u1ed1 ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn.<\/p>\n
Phe l\u1ea1c quan vs. Phe bi quan: So s\u00e1nh c\u00e1c lu\u1eadn \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i<\/h3>\n
Bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 Trung Qu\u1ed1c: Y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed3ng<\/h2>\n
Li\u1ec7u t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng xe \u0111i\u1ec7n v\u00e0 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u1eb7t tr\u1eddi c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u00f9 \u0111\u1eafp cho s\u1ef1 suy tho\u00e1i b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n?<\/h3>\n
Trung Qu\u1ed1c l\u00e0 qu\u1ed1c gia ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ed3ng l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi v\u1edbi kho\u1ea3ng c\u00e1ch \u00e1p \u0111\u1ea3o, chi\u1ebfm kho\u1ea3ng 60% nhu c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ed3ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. \u0110\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi, Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u0169ng l\u00e0 nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed3ng tinh luy\u1ec7n (refined copper) l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi. Ch\u00ednh v\u00ec vai tr\u00f2 k\u00e9p n\u00e0y, t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh kinh t\u1ebf Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u1ebfn to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed3ng. T\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2026, nhu c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ed3ng c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111ang ch\u1ecbu t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1eeb hai l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ed1i l\u1eadp nhau. M\u1ed9t m\u1eb7t, s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng xe \u0111i\u1ec7n (EV) t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c l\u1eafp \u0111\u1eb7t t\u1ea5m pin m\u1eb7t tr\u1eddi m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng \u0111ang th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ed3ng. M\u1eb7t kh\u00e1c, s\u1ef1 suy tho\u00e1i c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n \u0111ang k\u00ecm h\u00e3m nhu c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ed3ng trong l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng. Do l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n Trung Qu\u1ed1c theo truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng tr\u1ee5 c\u1ed9t ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ed3ng ch\u00ednh, n\u1ebfu s\u1ef1 suy tho\u00e1i n\u00e0y k\u00e9o d\u00e0i, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1eeb xe \u0111i\u1ec7n v\u00e0 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u1eb7t tr\u1eddi c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f3 b\u00f9 \u0111\u1eafp ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n. Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, n\u1ebfu ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 Trung Qu\u1ed1c t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00e1c g\u00f3i k\u00edch th\u00edch kinh t\u1ebf ho\u1eb7c t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn xe \u0111i\u1ec7n di\u1ec5n ra nhanh h\u01a1n d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn, qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i nhu c\u1ea7u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ea9y nhanh. \u0110\u00e2y ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 l\u00fd do khi\u1ebfn bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 Trung Qu\u1ed1c tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 r\u1ee7i ro quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t trong tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed3ng.<\/p>\n
T\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch thu\u1ebf quan M\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed3ng<\/h2>\n
Ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u00e1 COMEX\u2013LME v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 m\u00e9o m\u00f3 cung c\u1ea7u to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u<\/h3>\n
Ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch thu\u1ebf quan \u0111\u1ed3ng c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1eb7c th\u00f9 tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed3ng n\u0103m 2026. Khi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng \u00e1p thu\u1ebf gia t\u0103ng, c\u00e1c b\u00ean mua trong n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 t\u00edch tr\u1eef \u0111\u1ed3ng v\u1edbi s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u1edbn tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi thu\u1ebf c\u00f3 hi\u1ec7u l\u1ef1c, d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c gi\u00e1 COMEX duy tr\u00ec \u1edf m\u1ee9c cao b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng so v\u1edbi LME, h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u contango. S\u1ef1 ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u00e1 n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m m\u00e9o m\u00f3 d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y \u0111\u1ed3ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, khi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ed3ng v\u1ed1n d\u0129 s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c khu v\u1ef1c kh\u00e1c b\u1ecb t\u1eadp trung v\u1ec1 M\u1ef9. Tuy nhi\u00ean, khi l\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u00e0ng t\u00edch tr\u1eef c\u1ea1n ki\u1ec7t, nhu c\u1ea7u trong n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi gi\u1ea3m, g\u00e2y \u00e1p l\u1ef1c gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 l\u00ean COMEX. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ngo\u00e0i M\u1ef9, gi\u00e1 LME ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh cung c\u1ea7u to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01a1n, nh\u01b0ng c\u1ea7n nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c r\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i trong ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch COMEX\u2013LME v\u1eabn \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn t\u00e2m l\u00fd th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng chung.<\/p>\n
C\u00e1c c\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ed3ng: So s\u00e1nh ETF, h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai v\u00e0 CFD<\/h2>\n
ETF \u0111\u1ed3ng trong n\u01b0\u1edbc (KODEX \uad6c\ub9ac\uc120\ubb3c(H) vs. TIGER \uad6c\ub9ac\uc2e4\ubb3c)<\/h3>\n
Hai ETF ti\u00eau bi\u1ec3u m\u00e0 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 H\u00e0n Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u00f4ng qua t\u00e0i kho\u1ea3n ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n trong n\u01b0\u1edbc l\u00e0 KODEX \uad6c\ub9ac\uc120\ubb3c(H) ETF (Samsung Asset Management), theo d\u00f5i h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai \u0111\u1ed3ng CME COMEX v\u00e0 c\u00f3 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba r\u1ee7i ro t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 (currency hedge). S\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m n\u00e0y gi\u00fap gi\u1ea3m t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 KRW\/USD, nh\u01b0ng chi ph\u00ed rollover ph\u00e1t sinh khi \u0111\u00e1o h\u1ea1n h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn trong d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n. \u0110\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t khi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai \u1edf tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i contango, chi ph\u00ed rollover s\u1ebd t\u0103ng cao, do \u0111\u00f3 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n c\u1ea7n t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn kho\u1ea3n chi ph\u00ed n\u00e0y. TIGER \uad6c\ub9ac\uc2e4\ubb3c ETF (Mirae Asset Global Investments) \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o ch\u1ee9ng ch\u1ec9 kho h\u00e0ng LME (warrant) \u0111\u1ec3 theo d\u00f5i gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng v\u1eadt ch\u1ea5t v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng ph\u00e1t sinh chi ph\u00ed rollover. Tuy nhi\u00ean, do c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u ph\u01a1i l\u1ed9 t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 (currency exposure), bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 KRW\/USD s\u1ebd \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp \u0111\u1ebfn l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn. COPX ETF ni\u00eam y\u1ebft t\u1ea1i M\u1ef9 l\u00e0 s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty khai th\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 b\u1eb1ng USD v\u00e0 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng thu\u1ebf thu nh\u1eadp v\u1ed1n 22% \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u01b0 tr\u00fa t\u1ea1i H\u00e0n Qu\u1ed1c.<\/p>\n
\u0110\u1ec3 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng gi\u00e1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed3ng v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, c\u1ea7n ph\u00e2n bi\u1ec7t t\u1eebng s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh theo d\u00f5i lo\u1ea1i gi\u00e1 n\u00e0o v\u00e0 ph\u00e1t sinh nh\u1eefng chi ph\u00ed g\u00ec. Ti\u00eau ch\u00ed l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn theo th\u1eddi gian n\u1eafm gi\u1eef v\u00e0 m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 r\u1ee7i ro c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ecm hi\u1ec3u chi ti\u1ebft h\u01a1n trong ph\u1ea7n so s\u00e1nh tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u1ed3ng v\u00e0 c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t ch\u00ednh gi\u1eefa ETF, h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai v\u00e0 CFD.<\/p>\n
\u0110\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i (LME, COMEX)<\/h3>\n
\u0110\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp v\u00e0o h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai \u0111\u1ed3ng LME (\u0111\u01a1n v\u1ecb h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng 25 MT) ho\u1eb7c h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai COMEX HG (\u0111\u01a1n v\u1ecb h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng 25.000 pound, m\u00e3 HG) c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c cao trong vi\u1ec7c theo d\u00f5i gi\u00e1, nh\u01b0ng \u0111i k\u00e8m v\u1edbi \u0111\u01a1n v\u1ecb h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng l\u1edbn, y\u00eau c\u1ea7u k\u00fd qu\u1ef9 (margin) v\u00e0 g\u00e1nh n\u1eb7ng qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd ng\u00e0y \u0111\u00e1o h\u1ea1n. Trong giao d\u1ecbch t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai, k\u00fd qu\u1ef9 l\u00e0 kho\u1ea3n ti\u1ec1n th\u1ebf ch\u1ea5p c\u1ea7n n\u1ed9p \u0111\u1ec3 duy tr\u00ec v\u1ecb th\u1ebf, kh\u00e1c v\u1edbi ph\u00ed giao d\u1ecbch. Khi h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai \u0111\u1ebfn h\u1ea1n, c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i rollover sang th\u00e1ng ti\u1ebfp theo v\u00e0 qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh n\u00e0y ph\u00e1t sinh chi ph\u00ed. H\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai \u0111\u1ed3ng tr\u00ean S\u00e0n giao d\u1ecbch h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n Th\u01b0\u1ee3ng H\u1ea3i (SHFE) \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng l\u00e0m chu\u1ea9n gi\u00e1 trong n\u01b0\u1edbc Trung Qu\u1ed1c, nh\u01b0ng kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i c\u00f2n h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf.<\/p>\n
Giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u1ed3ng qua CFD: \u01afu \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng l\u01b0u \u00fd quan tr\u1ecdng<\/h3>\n
H\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch (CFD) l\u00e0 c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ph\u00e1i sinh cho ph\u00e9p t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn t\u1eeb bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n n\u1eafm gi\u1eef \u0111\u1ed3ng v\u1eadt ch\u1ea5t hay h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai. B\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 giao d\u1ecbch CFD \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 m\u00f4i gi\u1edbi CFD nh\u01b0 M4Markets, s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y \u0111\u1ec3 v\u1eadn h\u00e0nh v\u1ecb th\u1ebf l\u1edbn h\u01a1n v\u1edbi kho\u1ea3n k\u00fd qu\u1ef9 nh\u1ecf. Chi ph\u00ed giao d\u1ecbch ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a CFD l\u00e0 spread (ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u00e1 mua\u2013b\u00e1n) v\u00e0 ph\u00ed qua \u0111\u00eam (overnight financing). Ph\u00ed qua \u0111\u00eam ph\u00e1t sinh khi gi\u1eef v\u1ecb th\u1ebf qua h\u01a1n m\u1ed9t ng\u00e0y v\u00e0 s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n s\u1ebd kh\u00e1c nhau t\u00f9y theo h\u01b0\u1edbng v\u1ecb th\u1ebf long (mua) hay short (b\u00e1n). \u0110i\u1ec3m \u0111\u1eb7c tr\u01b0ng c\u1ee7a CFD l\u00e0 cho ph\u00e9p giao d\u1ecbch hai chi\u1ec1u, t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn b\u1eb1ng v\u1ecb th\u1ebf short khi gi\u00e1 gi\u1ea3m. C\u00f3 th\u1ec3 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd r\u1ee7i ro b\u1eb1ng l\u1ec7nh c\u1eaft l\u1ed7 (stop-loss) v\u00e0 ch\u1ed1t l\u1eddi (take-profit), tuy nhi\u00ean trong tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1ea1nh, l\u1ec7nh c\u1eaft l\u1ed7 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c kh\u1edbp ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c t\u1ea1i m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1eb7t. Vui l\u00f2ng ki\u1ec3m tra tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n chi ti\u1ebft c\u1ee7a CFD \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u1ea1i M4Markets (spread, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y, \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n swap, v.v.) trong t\u00e0i li\u1ec7u s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c.<\/p>\n
Nh\u1eefng r\u1ee7i ro c\u1ea7n n\u1eafm r\u00f5 khi \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ed3ng<\/h2>\n
C\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o r\u1ee7i ro: H\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch (CFD) l\u00e0 c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p, ti\u1ec1m \u1ea9n r\u1ee7i ro cao. \u0110\u00f2n b\u1ea9y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 khu\u1ebfch \u0111\u1ea1i c\u1ea3 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn l\u1eabn thua l\u1ed7, v\u00e0 t\u00f9y theo \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 m\u1ea5t to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 v\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0. Tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u giao d\u1ecbch, n\u00ean t\u00ecm hi\u1ec3u k\u1ef9 c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m v\u00e0 c\u00e1c chi ph\u00ed li\u00ean quan, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi th\u1ef1c h\u00e0nh tr\u00ean t\u00e0i kho\u1ea3n demo.<\/p>\n
R\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y v\u00e0 k\u00fd qu\u1ef9<\/h3>\n
Trong giao d\u1ecbch CFD ho\u1eb7c h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai, r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y l\u00e0 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 nguy hi\u1ec3m quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t. \u0110\u00f2n b\u1ea9y cho ph\u00e9p v\u1eadn h\u00e0nh v\u1ecb th\u1ebf l\u1edbn v\u1edbi kho\u1ea3n k\u00fd qu\u1ef9 nh\u1ecf, nh\u01b0ng n\u1ebfu gi\u00e1 di chuy\u1ec3n theo h\u01b0\u1edbng b\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i, thua l\u1ed7 c\u0169ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c khu\u1ebfch \u0111\u1ea1i theo c\u00f9ng t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7. Khi k\u00fd qu\u1ef9 gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi m\u1ed9t m\u1ee9c nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh, l\u1ec7nh g\u1ecdi k\u00fd qu\u1ef9 (margin call) s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t, bu\u1ed9c b\u1ea1n ph\u1ea3i n\u1ed9p th\u00eam ti\u1ec1n ho\u1eb7c v\u1ecb th\u1ebf s\u1ebd b\u1ecb thanh l\u00fd c\u01b0\u1ee1ng b\u1ee9c. Gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u00e0ng tr\u0103m USD\/MT trong th\u1eddi gian ng\u1eafn, do \u0111\u00f3 khi n\u1eafm gi\u1eef v\u1ecb th\u1ebf c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y, \u0111i\u1ec1u quan tr\u1ecdng l\u00e0 ph\u1ea3i duy tr\u00ec \u0111\u1ee7 d\u01b0 \u0111\u1ecba k\u00fd qu\u1ef9.<\/p>\n
R\u1ee7i ro t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 (bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng KRW\/USD)<\/h3>\n
V\u00ec \u0111\u1ed3ng l\u00e0 h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 b\u1eb1ng USD, nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 H\u00e0n Qu\u1ed1c kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 ch\u1ecbu r\u1ee7i ro t\u1eeb bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng m\u00e0 c\u00f2n ph\u01a1i l\u1ed9 v\u1edbi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 KRW\/USD. C\u00e1c s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m ph\u01a1i l\u1ed9 t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 (TIGER \uad6c\ub9ac\uc2e4\ubb3c ETF, h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i, CFD) s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn quy \u0111\u1ed5i sang KRW khi USD m\u1ea1nh l\u00ean v\u00e0 t\u0103ng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn khi USD y\u1ebfu \u0111i. C\u00e1c s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 (KODEX \uad6c\ub9ac\uc120\ubb3c(H)) gi\u00fap gi\u1ea3m t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1, nh\u01b0ng ph\u00e1t sinh chi ph\u00ed ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n r\u1ee7i ro t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1. C\u1ea7n c\u00e2n nh\u1eafc k\u1ef9 l\u01b0\u1ee1ng vi\u1ec7c c\u00f3 n\u00ean ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 hay kh\u00f4ng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0 tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1.<\/p>\n
K\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n d\u01b0 cung v\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1<\/h3>\n
Ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn n\u1ed9i dung ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n t\u0103ng gi\u00e1, tuy nhi\u00ean k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 c\u0169ng c\u1ea7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem x\u00e9t m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng. Macquarie \u0111\u01b0a ra kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng d\u01b0 cung 262.000 t\u1ea5n v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2026, trong \u0111\u00f3 \u00e1p l\u1ef1c gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n n\u1ebfu k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n n\u00e0y x\u1ea3y ra. N\u1ebfu kinh t\u1ebf Trung Qu\u1ed1c suy gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o, ho\u1eb7c trong qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh gi\u1ea3i t\u1ecfa c\u00e1c m\u00e9o m\u00f3 c\u1ea7u do thu\u1ebf quan c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 g\u00e2y ra, gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tr\u1ea3i qua \u0111\u1ee3t \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n. Ngo\u00e0i ra, n\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ed3ng USD ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c m\u1ea1nh l\u00ean ho\u1eb7c Fed chuy\u1ec3n h\u01b0\u1edbng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t sang th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t, \u0111\u00e2y c\u0169ng s\u1ebd l\u00e0 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 b\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a \u0111\u1ecbnh danh b\u1eb1ng USD. \u0110\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ed3ng c\u1ea7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn v\u1edbi nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7 v\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng r\u1ee7i ro gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n
C\u00e2u h\u1ecfi th\u01b0\u1eddng g\u1eb7p<\/h2>\n
N\u00ean tham chi\u1ebfu gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng LME hay gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng COMEX?<\/h3>\n
\u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ngo\u00e0i M\u1ef9, gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n 3 th\u00e1ng tr\u00ean LME (USD\/MT) ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh cung c\u1ea7u to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp h\u01a1n v\u00e0 th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u00f9ng l\u00e0m chu\u1ea9n tham chi\u1ebfu. H\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai HG tr\u00ean COMEX (USD\/lb) ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh cung c\u1ea7u n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 thu\u1ebf quan; do \u0111\u00f3, khi ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u1eefa hai m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 n\u00e0y l\u1edbn, \u0111\u00e2y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u cho th\u1ea5y c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0111\u1eb7c th\u00f9 c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng M\u1ef9 \u0111ang t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng. Khi quy \u0111\u1ed5i \u0111\u01a1n v\u1ecb, \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 1 USD\/lb \u2248 2.204,6 USD\/MT.<\/p>\n
Gi\u1eefa ETF KODEX Copper Futures (H) v\u00e0 ETF TIGER Copper Physical, lo\u1ea1i n\u00e0o ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p h\u01a1n?<\/h3>\n
Hai ETF n\u00e0y c\u00f3 ph\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ee9c theo d\u00f5i v\u00e0 c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac chi ph\u00ed kh\u00e1c nhau, do \u0111\u00f3 ti\u00eau ch\u00ed l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ee7a t\u1eebng ng\u01b0\u1eddi. N\u1ebfu mu\u1ed1n gi\u1ea3m thi\u1ec3u r\u1ee7i ro bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1, KODEX v\u1edbi t\u00ednh n\u0103ng ph\u00f2ng h\u1ed9 t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 s\u1ebd c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i h\u01a1n; tuy nhi\u00ean, khi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai \u1edf tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i contango, chi ph\u00ed rollover c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u00e0o m\u00f2n l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n. N\u1ebfu mu\u1ed1n theo d\u00f5i gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng v\u1eadt ch\u1ea5t tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp h\u01a1n v\u00e0 tr\u00e1nh chi ph\u00ed rollover, TIGER Copper Physical l\u00e0 l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p, nh\u01b0ng s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i ch\u1ecbu to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 r\u1ee7i ro bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 VND\/USD. Kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m n\u00e0o t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i; c\u1ea7n c\u00e2n nh\u1eafc \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi th\u1eddi h\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0 tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1.<\/p>\n
Chi ph\u00ed qua \u0111\u00eam trong giao d\u1ecbch CFD \u0111\u1ed3ng ph\u00e1t sinh nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o?<\/h3>\n
Khi gi\u1eef v\u1ecb th\u1ebf CFD qua \u0111\u00eam (overnight financing), chi ph\u00ed l\u01b0u gi\u1eef qua \u0111\u00eam s\u1ebd ph\u00e1t sinh. Chi ph\u00ed n\u00e0y ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o chi\u1ec1u v\u1ecb th\u1ebf (mua\/b\u00e1n), quy m\u00f4 h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng v\u00e0 m\u1ee9c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng. Th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng, v\u1ecb th\u1ebf mua (long) s\u1ebd ph\u00e1t sinh chi ph\u00ed, trong khi v\u1ecb th\u1ebf b\u00e1n (short) \u0111\u00f4i khi c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c kho\u1ea3n thu. Khi gi\u1eef v\u1ecb th\u1ebf d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n, chi ph\u00ed n\u00e0y t\u00edch l\u0169y theo th\u1eddi gian v\u00e0 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn, v\u00ec v\u1eady c\u1ea7n ki\u1ec3m tra \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n swap ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a s\u00e0n giao d\u1ecbch tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi v\u00e0o l\u1ec7nh.<\/p>\n
D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2028\u20132030 c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o?<\/h3>\n
C\u00e1c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o gi\u00e1 theo t\u1eebng n\u0103m t\u1eeb c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c c\u00f4ng khai cho giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2028\u20132030 hi\u1ec7n c\u00f2n r\u1ea5t h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf. D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o 6 USD\/lb v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2030 c\u1ee7a Red Cloud hay c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t cung d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a S&P Global \u0111\u1ec1u l\u00e0 k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a t\u1eebng t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c ri\u00eang l\u1ebb v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o c\u00e0ng d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n th\u00ec m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e0ng cao, bao g\u1ed3m t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7, h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111i c\u1ee7a kinh t\u1ebf Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 ti\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n m\u1ecf m\u1edbi. Do \u0111\u00f3, c\u00e1c con s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y ch\u1ec9 n\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng nh\u01b0 t\u00e0i li\u1ec7u tham kh\u1ea3o v\u1ec1 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng.<\/p>\n
Khi \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u1ed3ng, c\u00f3 nh\u1ea5t thi\u1ebft ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1eb7t l\u1ec7nh c\u1eaft l\u1ed7 (stop-loss) kh\u00f4ng?<\/h3>\n
L\u1ec7nh c\u1eaft l\u1ed7 l\u00e0 c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd r\u1ee7i ro gi\u00fap gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n thua l\u1ed7 khi gi\u00e1 gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u1ed9t ng\u1ed9t ngo\u00e0i d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn. \u0110\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t trong giao d\u1ecbch CFD ho\u1eb7c h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y, vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1eb7t l\u1ec7nh c\u1eaft l\u1ed7 l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u quan tr\u1ecdng. Tuy nhi\u00ean, trong \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1ea1nh, l\u1ec7nh c\u1eaft l\u1ed7 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c kh\u1edbp ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c t\u1ea1i m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1eb7t (tr\u01b0\u1ee3t gi\u00e1 \u2013 slippage), v\u00ec v\u1eady n\u00ean duy tr\u00ec m\u1ee9c k\u00fd qu\u1ef9 d\u1ef1 ph\u00f2ng \u0111\u1ee7 l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ec3 \u1ee9ng ph\u00f3. C\u1ea7n l\u01b0u \u00fd r\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1eb7t l\u1ec7nh c\u1eaft l\u1ed7 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n thua l\u1ed7.<\/p>\n
C\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 cung c\u1ea7u c\u1ea7n xem x\u00e9t khi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng<\/h2>\n
\u0110\u1ec3 hi\u1ec3u tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a \u0111\u1ed3ng, \u0111i\u1ec1u c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i l\u00e0 n\u1eafm b\u1eaft xu h\u01b0\u1edbng c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac cung c\u1ea7u h\u01a1n l\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 nh\u00ecn v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau duy nh\u1ea5t. Nhu c\u1ea7u \u0111i\u1ec7n kh\u00ed h\u00f3a gia t\u0103ng v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac trong ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n m\u1ecf l\u00e0 c\u01a1 s\u1edf cho lu\u1eadn \u0111i\u1ec3m th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t cung trung v\u00e0 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n; trong khi \u0111\u00f3, s\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ec1 c\u1ea7u t\u1eeb Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n d\u01b0 cung ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a Macquarie l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 l\u00e0m t\u0103ng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n. Khi l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, c\u1ea7n so s\u00e1nh chi ph\u00ed rollover v\u00e0 t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng ph\u00f2ng h\u1ed9 t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a ETF, chi ph\u00ed qua \u0111\u00eam v\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y c\u1ee7a CFD, c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 g\u00e1nh n\u1eb7ng qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd \u0111\u00e1o h\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai \u2014 t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 ph\u1ea3i ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi th\u1eddi h\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0 m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn r\u1ee7i ro c\u1ee7a t\u1eebng c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n. Tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u giao d\u1ecbch c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3, n\u00ean tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp ki\u1ec3m tra b\u1ea3n m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng v\u00e0 c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac chi ph\u00ed c\u1ee7a t\u1eebng s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi l\u00e0m quen v\u1edbi ph\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ee9c giao d\u1ecbch th\u00f4ng qua t\u00e0i kho\u1ea3n demo. M4Markets cung c\u1ea5p m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng giao d\u1ecbch CFD h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a bao g\u1ed3m \u0111\u1ed3ng; c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n chi ti\u1ebft c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn trong t\u00e0i li\u1ec7u s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed3ng hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang \u1edf giai \u0111o\u1ea1n ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p khi ba \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c c\u1ea7u mang t\u00ednh c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u \u2014 chuy\u1ec3n d\u1ecbch n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng (energy transition), m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng AI v\u00e0 ph\u1ed5 c\u1eadp xe \u0111i\u1ec7n (EV) \u2014 va ch\u1ea1m tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf v\u1ec1 ngu\u1ed3n cung t\u1eeb khai th\u00e1c m\u1ecf. T\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2026, gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n 3 th\u00e1ng tr\u00ean S\u00e0n Giao d\u1ecbch Kim lo\u1ea1i London (LME) \u0111ang ti\u1ec7m c\u1eadn m\u1ee9c cao l\u1ecbch s\u1eed v\u1edbi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1ea1nh. Trong khi Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan v\u00e0 Citigroup \u0111\u1ec1u d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o gi\u00e1 t\u0103ng trong trung v\u00e0 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n, Macquarie l\u1ea1i c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng d\u01b0 cung […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":41,"featured_media":547,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-549","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commodity-trading"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"yoast_head":"\n
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